Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Kalshi21¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Bitcoin remained below the threshold across contemporaneous venues after a steep selloff, so a qualifying noon Binance close is unlikely.

Bitcoin entered resolution day below the required level after a forceful reversal, heavy leveraged-long liquidations, and an adverse shift in the dollar and Treasury yields. Resolution-day volatility leaves room for a rapid recovery, but the available readings favor a below-threshold close. Only the specified Binance candle counts, and that exact fixing is not included in the supplied records.

Points to NO

Resolution-day spot pricing below $78,250 left Bitcoin needing a meaningful rebound before noon, reducing the chance of a qualifying close.
At 06:31 UTC on Aug. 29, Bitcoin was displayed at $77,447, down 3.04%.
The preceding collapse from above $81,000 and heavy long liquidations created strong downward momentum that could carry into the fixing.
On Aug. 28, Bitcoin rose above $81,300 before falling below $77,000 within hours, while nearly $488 million of crypto positions were liquidated, including more than $360 million of leveraged longs.
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighed on Bitcoin, making a durable rebound before the fixing harder to sustain.
On Aug. 28, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.312% and the U.S. Dollar Index advanced to 99.47 as Bitcoin sold off.

Points to YES

Bitcoin traded above the threshold earlier in the same daily range, showing that a sufficiently large rebound remained feasible despite weaker later readings.
On Aug. 29, Bitcoin was displayed at $77,671 after recording a 24-hour high of $79,745 and a low of $76,962.
The Binance-specific fixing can differ from off-venue quotes, preserving limited room for a qualifying close even when broader spot readings are lower.
The Aug. 29 resolution rules specify the final close of Binance’s one-minute BTC/USDT candle at noon ET rather than another exchange, pair, or benchmark.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.