Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket19¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO81¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 17 forecast

Recent polls consistently place Die Linke above 8%, so a finish below that threshold is a long shot.

All available polling from the last month places Die Linke between 9% and 12%, well above the 8% threshold, making a sub-8% finish a long shot. The 2021 baseline of 9.9% further underscores that Die Linke's support has not eroded to the point of falling below 8% in this state. A below-8% result would require either a major polling error far beyond stated margins or an unprecedented last-minute swing against the party, neither of which has material precedent in recent German state elections.

Points to NO

Multiple late-stage polls from INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and pollytix show Die Linke between 9% and 12% of the vote.
INSA poll on September 16 recorded 10.0%.
Die Linke's 2021 result of 9.9% provides a historical anchor well above the threshold.
In the 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, Die Linke won 9.9% of second votes.
Only 10% of voters say their preference could still change, limiting potential for a late swing.
Infratest dimap poll found 10% of eligible voters say their party preference could still change before election day.

Points to YES

Some polls, like Infratest dimap's 9% projection, are within 1 percentage point of the 8% threshold when accounting for margin of error.
Infratest dimap poll on September 10 projected 9%, with a margin of error of ±2 points.

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