Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+41%$100 paper stake

Kalshi71¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES71¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updated

Aug 26 forecast

October WTI enters the final session with a meaningful price cushion, so an above-$80.99 settlement is likely.

October WTI settled at $82.23 on August 26, leaving room above the threshold after recovering from a steep intraday decline. Persistently constrained Gulf oil flows support prices, while corridor negotiations and the week’s sharp selloff create meaningful risk of a sudden reversal.

Points to YES

The contract enters the final session above the threshold, requiring another material decline for YES to fail.
On August 26, October WTI settled at $82.23 per barrel, $1.24 above the $80.99 threshold.
A strong recovery from the session’s lows suggests buyers may defend the contract against another threshold-breaking decline.
On August 26, October WTI settled only $0.13 lower after falling more than 3% earlier in the session.
Persistently constrained Gulf oil flows preserve a disruption premium that can keep WTI above the threshold.
On August 26, crude flows remained extremely constrained and petroleum-product supplies continued tightening despite diplomacy-related price declines.

Points to NO

Iran-Oman corridor discussions could extend the recent de-escalation-driven selloff and erase the remaining cushion.
On August 26, Iran and Oman reported a revenue-sharing and exit-corridor arrangement, although reopening still required US acceptance.
The recent steep decline shows enough short-term volatility to carry WTI through the threshold in a single session.
By August 26, crude futures had fallen 8.7% over three sessions, from near $88 to about $80.30, with technical support identified near $79.

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