Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Kalshi68¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

WTI is already above $90.99 amid severe Hormuz disruption, so an October-contract settlement above the threshold is likely.

The settlement-basis price is 92.0212, giving WTI a cushion of just over $1 above the threshold. The explicit October-contract settlement was also above $90.99 on September 4, while tanker attacks, exceptionally low Hormuz traffic, and tight fuel supplies support the disruption premium. Conflicting sub-$90 price reports, reduced expectations of near-term escalation, and a recent daily range spanning the threshold show that the cushion is fragile. The balance therefore supports an above-threshold settlement as likely.

Points to YES

The relevant October WTI contract most recently settled above the threshold.
On September 4, the October WTI contract settled at $91.48 per barrel, $0.49 above $90.99.
Extremely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic is supporting oil’s supply-risk premium.
On September 3, only three vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, about 2% of the prewar daily baseline.
Fresh tanker attacks keep the risk of further oil-shipping disruption elevated.
On September 5, Iran said it targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized Hormuz route in retaliation for American attacks on Iranian tankers.

Points to NO

Reduced expectations of immediate Hormuz escalation create room for the disruption premium to unwind.
On September 4, the latest intelligence assessment cited by Dimitris Maniatis reduced expectations of near-term escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent trading has crossed both sides of $90.99, showing that the current cushion can disappear quickly.
WTI traded between $88.72 and $92.17 on September 4, a range spanning the settlement threshold.

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