Will Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Council meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+18%$100 paper stake

Kalshi85¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES85¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 7

Forecast updated

Sep 10 forecast

The Council just held its reference rate at 3.75% and officials favor waiting for November’s projection, so an October hold is highly likely.

NBP held its reference rate in September, retained its guidance, and has received no clear signal requiring an immediate move. Council commentary and bank forecasts favor unchanged policy through October, when no major domestic event is expected to force action. Rising fuel costs and financial pricing for future hikes create a tightening risk, but they point more toward later meetings than an October move.

Points to YES

The Council entered the October window with the reference rate unchanged at 3.75%.
On 9 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Council kept all NBP policy rates unchanged, including the 3.75% reference rate.
A serving Council member’s stated baseline extends the current rate beyond October.
On 9 September 2026, Marcin Zarzecki said his base scenario was maintaining the 3.75% reference rate at least until the turn of 2026 and 2027.
The Council has reason to defer a major decision until November’s updated inflation projection.
On 9 September 2026, Bankier.pl reported that the Council may avoid significant decisions until the new NBP inflation projection arrives in November.

Points to NO

Fuel-driven inflation has increased pressure for tighter policy.
In August 2026, Polish CPI inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.0%, mainly because of fuel prices and near the upper edge of NBP’s tolerance band.
Polish interest-rate markets anticipate meaningful tightening over the coming quarters.
On 9 September 2026, FRA rates implied policy rates around 4.25%–4.50% within six to nine months, while two-year government yields stood above the reference rate.

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