Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

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Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Fresh forecasts center on 4.1%, so an August U.S. unemployment rate above 4.2% is unlikely.

Most pre-release evidence points to a reading no higher than 4.2%: real-time forecasts center on 4.1%, consensus is 4.2%, claims remain subdued, and consumers report better current job availability. An above-threshold reading remains possible because July payrolls contracted, temporary layoffs increased, and labor-force movements can make U-3 volatile. Overall, an August unemployment rate above 4.2% is unlikely.

Points to NO

A late-August real-time estimate places unemployment below the threshold.
On August 27, 2026, the Chicago Fed’s real-time forecast put the August U.S. unemployment rate at 4.10%.
The prevailing forecast is exactly 4.2%, which would not count as above the threshold.
On August 27, 2026, PNC Economics reported that the consensus expected unemployment to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% in August.
New unemployment claims remain too subdued to signal a sharp rise in joblessness.
Initial unemployment claims fell to 203,000 in the week ending August 22, 2026, from a revised 207,000 the previous week.

Points to YES

July’s payroll contraction shows that labor demand was already weak entering August.
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July 2026.
A large July increase in temporary layoffs creates a live path to higher measured unemployment.
The number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July 2026.

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