Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Polymarket26¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Sep 29 forecast

Polling consistently shows Bobby Pulido tied or ahead after redistricting weakened Republican terrain, so a Republican victory in TX-15 is unlikely.

The current evidence strongly favors Pulido: several district polls place him ahead or tied, the new boundaries removed De La Cruz’s strongest counties, and Republican support has fractured. De La Cruz remains competitive because TX-15 retains a Republican lean, backed Trump decisively in 2024, and is attracting substantial Republican spending. Those structural advantages keep a comeback plausible, but they have not yet overcome Pulido’s polling strength and crossover appeal.

Points to NO

District polling consistently places Pulido ahead or level with De La Cruz.
On September 25, 2026, available public and private TX-15 polling showed either a tied race or Pulido leading.
Redistricting stripped away much of De La Cruz’s strongest electoral territory.
The redrawn district removed counties where De La Cruz performed best and added the portion of Hidalgo County where Democrat Vicente Gonzalez performed best in 2024.
Pulido is drawing meaningful support from voters who previously backed Republicans.
An August 18–22 survey found that 8% of Republicans and 8% of 2024 Trump voters in TX-15 intended to vote for Pulido.

Points to YES

TX-15 retains strong Republican fundamentals despite its altered boundaries.
The district was rated R+7 in November 2025, after Trump carried it by 18 points and De La Cruz won it by 14 points in 2024.
Republicans are committing substantial resources to defending De La Cruz.
From September 5 through September 27, 2026, Republican groups spent about $2 million on texts, direct mail, and digital advertising supporting De La Cruz.

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