Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

October 2026 WTI entered settlement day above $89.49 after three straight gains, so an above-threshold September 3 settlement is likely.

October WTI begins the day near $90.38 after two consecutive settlements above the threshold, while severe constraints on Persian Gulf shipping continue to support prices. The cushion is modest, however, and the previous session crossed both sides of $89.49 as easing tensions and recovering exports pressured crude. An above-threshold September 3 settlement is therefore likely.

Points to YES

Recent settlement momentum leaves October WTI above the required threshold.
On September 2, front-month October NYMEX crude settled at $91.01 after rising for three consecutive sessions.
Extremely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to support a geopolitical premium in crude.
On September 1, only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, below 3% of traffic before the February attacks on Iran.
A larger-than-expected U.S. inventory draw points to tighter near-term crude availability.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending August 28, exceeding the expected 1.1-million-barrel draw.

Points to NO

The threshold remains vulnerable because recent intraday volatility has been larger than the current cushion.
On September 2, WTI traded from $88.97 to $92.29, crossing both below and above $89.49 during the session.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports and tentative conflict easing are limiting further oil-price gains.
On September 2, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil flows had recovered to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war level.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.