Will Bitcoin be at or above $76,500 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin sits 3.84% above the $76,500 threshold with little time remaining, so a September 11 price at or above $76,500 is likely.

Bitcoin is around $79,557, leaving a meaningful but vulnerable cushion above $76,500. Its rebound from the upper $77,000s was supported by direct spot buying and strong ETF inflows, while the short remaining window limits the time available for a lasting breakdown. A September 11 price at or above $76,500 is likely with meaningful uncertainty because recent volatility, weak risk appetite, and a September 8 low near $77,600 leave a sharp downside move plausible.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has a 3.84% cushion above the $76,500 settlement threshold.
On September 9, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was approximately $79,557, about $3,057 above the threshold.
Large spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are reinforcing near-term demand.
By September 9, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted US$1.01 billion of net inflows over three trading sessions.
The latest rebound was driven by direct spot buying rather than leverage.
On September 9, Bitcoin rebounded from $77,638 to above $79,000 during Asian trading, and Bitfinex attributed the move to direct spot buying.

Points to NO

Bitcoin recently traded close enough to the threshold for another selloff to threaten settlement.
Bitcoin fell as low as $77,600 on September 8, only $1,100 above the $76,500 threshold.
Elevated volatility leaves substantial risk of a sharp move before settlement.
On September 9, implied volatility above 40 was assessed as signaling a larger Bitcoin price swing without a clear direction.

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