Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Aggregate polling consistently places Jay Collins in second place behind Byron Donalds, so Collins finishing second is highly likely.

Jay Collins entered the race in January and has consistently polled in second place behind Byron Donalds across multiple surveys, including an Aug 6 JMI poll showing him at 18% versus Donalds at 49%, with Renner and Fishback trailing in single digits. A poll aggregator also lists Collins averaging 13.5%, second to Donalds at 47.5%. Collins has also won local GOP straw polls in Polk County, reinforcing organizational support. One social post dissented, predicting Fishback as the distant second-place finisher with Collins in third or fourth, but that view conflicts with the broader polling average. Another survey had Collins as low as 2.2% in July, yet the overall trend and more recent data keep him firmly in the runner-up position. The primary is Aug 18, and unless undecided voters break overwhelmingly for Fishback or Renner, or unless preliminary returns show a surprise ordering, Collins should occupy the second-highest vote total. The forecast treats this as highly likely, with meaningful but limited uncertainty driven by the dissenting prediction and the possibility of a narrow margin.