Will Ethereum be at or above $2,450 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake

Kalshi48¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES48¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Ethereum is already about $59 above the threshold with less than a day remaining, so a $2,450-or-higher settlement is likely.

Ethereum currently stands near $2,509, giving it a modest cushion over $2,450 with limited time left. Recent trading has crossed the threshold repeatedly, and selling pressure, ETF outflows, and weak short-term momentum leave meaningful downside risk. Still, the latest price is the most relevant fact for this same-day settlement, while Ethereum’s broader trend and August investment flows provide additional support. A settlement at or above $2,450 is likely, though an ordinary intraday swing could still reverse the outcome.

Points to YES

Ethereum currently trades about $59 above the settlement threshold.
On September 4, Ethereum was priced near $2,509 with less than a day remaining before settlement.
Ethereum’s broader price structure remained constructive despite short-term weakness.
On September 3, Ethereum remained above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages.
August investment flows showed substantial underlying demand for Ether.
Ether funds received $1.6 billion during August 2026, up from $297 million in July.

Points to NO

Recent price swings have been large enough to erase the entire current cushion.
Through 12:15 p.m. UTC on September 3, Ethereum’s reported weekly range was $2,357 to $2,532, spanning both sides of the threshold.
Institutional fund demand weakened immediately before settlement day.
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $48.08 million in net outflows on September 2.

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