Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi35¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO65¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 14

Forecast updated

Oct 9 forecast

NO: Q 79.9% · Market odds 62.5% at forecast

Inflation estimates. September core CPI estimates sit at the 0.2% monthly cutoff.

Main caution: Higher airfares could push core inflation above the cutoff.

Evidence and updates

Used-car prices. Lower used-car prices could restrain September core inflation.

Q rises; odds steady. Q +2.6 pts; odds −1.0 pts since the previous forecast, for NO.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-09T14:37:38.010000+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-10-09T14:03:58.136959000+00:00.

Ask Q: Do the final airfare, hotel and vehicle readings lift reported monthly core CPI above 0.2%?

Inflation estimates

Used-car prices

Main caution

Points to NO

Several fresh estimates place September core CPI at or below the threshold.
On October 8, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated September core CPI at 0.20% month over month.
Expected weakness in supercore inflation should moderate core services.
On October 9, TD Securities expected weaker supercore inflation to lower September core-services inflation to 0.22%.
Shelter indicators point to modest September rent inflation.
On October 1, Zillow forecast September owners’ equivalent rent inflation of 0.22% and primary-rent inflation of 0.17%.

Points to YES

August core inflation entered September with renewed momentum.
The September 11 release showed seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.3% in August after increasing 0.2% in July.
Broader pipeline price pressure creates an upside route through goods and travel services.
On October 2, September manufacturing price pressure was assessed as broadening, with the ISM Manufacturing Prices index rising to 77.9.

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