Novak Djokovic won75 vs. Daniil Medvedev53

ATPFinal24h volume $2.9M

Market price

Oct 4 forecast

Backed by an undefeated Beijing record and a commanding head-to-head edge, Novak Djokovic winning the semifinal against Daniil Medvedev is favored.

Medvedev enters the semifinal in peak rhythm following an ATP title in Hangzhou and a seven-match winning streak marked by exceptional serving numbers. However, Djokovic maintains an imposing 10-5 advantage in their head-to-head history, having won five of their past six encounters, alongside an unprecedented 32-0 career record in Beijing. While recent medical timeouts and grueling three-set battles show that Djokovic faces genuine physical challenges, his demonstrated ability to raise his level in critical moments against elite opposition makes his victory the more probable result.

Points to YES

Djokovic holds a decisive head-to-head advantage and has controlled recent meetings against Medvedev.
Djokovic led Medvedev 10-5 in their career series entering the match and had won five of their six most recent clashes.
Djokovic boasts an unblemished career record on the hard courts of the China Open.
Djokovic extended his Beijing record to 32-0 after defeating Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals.

Points to NO

Medvedev carries strong recent momentum and formidable serving form into the matchup.
Medvedev entered on a seven-match winning streak, winning 79% of first-serve points and holding in 10 of 11 games in his quarter-final.
Recurring physical discomfort and long court times threaten Djokovic's stamina.
Djokovic required medical timeouts in early rounds in Beijing and acknowledged ongoing physical struggles during his 2026 campaign.

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