Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,250 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+82%$100 paper stake

Kalshi45¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO55¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin remains below the threshold after losing nearby support, so a September 9 finish at or above $79,250 is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin is only 0.44% below the strike, but recent international prices, weakening momentum, and failed rallies above $80,000 lean against a qualifying finish. The small gap and recent intraday crossings keep a finish at or above $79,250 live, making it a meaningful underdog rather than a long shot. Unspecified venue and observation rules add uncertainty because supplied prices differ across trading venues.

Points to NO

Bitcoin is below the required level, although the gap remains small enough for an ordinary intraday move to erase.
On September 9, Bitcoin was $78,900.86, just 0.44% below the $79,250 strike.
Short-term price structure weakened after Bitcoin lost support and slipped below a closely watched moving average.
On September 9, Bitcoin fell below $79,250 support and its four-hour 100-period simple moving average after failing to settle above $80,000.

Points to YES

Recent volatility shows Bitcoin can cross the threshold quickly, even though those gains have not held.
On September 8, Bitcoin briefly traded above $80,400 before fading to near $79,000.
Recent institutional demand provides some underlying buying support despite immediate spot-market weakness.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $987 million in net inflows during the week through September 4, their third consecutive positive week.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.