Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+41%$100 paper stake

Polymarket71¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES71¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Sep 29 forecast

Derrite leads the newest first-choice polling and usually tops recent surveys, so winning the most São Paulo Senate votes is likely.

Derrite enters the final days with the clearest first-choice strength: he leads the newest Quaest and Real Time Big Data readings and has comparatively low rejection. That advantage matters in an election where each voter can support two different Senate candidates, although Derrite’s weaker second-choice showing limits his cushion. Several surveys still place the leading candidates within sampling error, and the large unsettled electorate leaves meaningful room for a late reversal. The most likely outcome is a Derrite first-place finish, but probably by a margin narrow enough that final voter movement could change the winner.

Points to YES

Derrite holds a substantial first-choice lead in the newest Quaest survey.
Quaest’s September 25–28 first-choice results put Derrite at 25%, seven points ahead of Marina Silva and Simone Tebet.
Derrite faces substantially less voter rejection than his two leading center-left rivals.
Quaest’s September 25–28 survey measured Derrite’s rejection at 17%, compared with 46% for Marina Silva and 33% for Simone Tebet.
Ricardo Salles’s withdrawal removes a right-aligned rival and gives Derrite another endorsement.
On September 28, Salles withdrew from the Senate race and announced support for Derrite, while also supporting André do Prado.

Points to NO

The overall race remains close enough for several rivals to overtake Derrite.
Futura’s September 22–26 survey placed Marina Silva at 35.1%, Derrite at 34.7%, and Simone Tebet at 33.3%, all within the margin of error.
Derrite’s weaker second-choice support and widespread voter uncertainty leave him exposed to late movement.
Quaest’s September 25–28 survey gave Derrite 11% among second choices, behind André do Prado, Simone Tebet, and Marina Silva, while 33% said they could still change their choice.

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