Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

WTI is already above $83.99 with only one settlement session remaining, so an August 31 settlement above the threshold is likely.

October WTI’s current settlement-basis price of 85.0552 is roughly 1.25% above the $83.99 threshold. That cushion contrasts with Friday’s $83.40 official settlement and a steep weekly decline, showing that either outcome remains reachable. Fresh military action and threats around the Strait of Hormuz support an oil-risk premium, while recovering Gulf exports and higher production temper it. With little time remaining and prices expected to stay roughly stable, an above-threshold settlement is likely, though a sharp final-session move could still reverse the result.

Points to YES

October WTI currently trades above the settlement threshold with a modest cushion.
On August 30, the settlement-basis WTI price was 85.0552, compared with the $83.99 threshold.
Fresh U.S.-Iran escalation near Hormuz supports crude prices immediately before settlement.
On August 30, U.S. Central Command said it struck two Iranian rocket launchers attempting to disperse sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

Points to NO

The latest published daily settlement was below the required level.
The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 on August 28, or $0.59 below the threshold.
A sharp weekly decline shows that recent price momentum has been unfavorable.
The October 2026 WTI contract fell 4.20% during the week ending August 28.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce some of the scarcity pressure supporting oil.
On August 28, Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports had risen to 15–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.