Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Polymarket64¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Lyra leads Campos across recent polls and pairs that advantage with strong approval, so her victory in Pernambuco’s governor election is likely.

Lyra leads in several recent first-round and runoff surveys, while broad approval of her administration and stronger spontaneous support suggest a durable advantage. Campos remains competitive because he has Lula and the PT behind him, leads among metropolitan and female voters, and still has time to benefit from the newly active broadcast campaign. The most likely outcome is therefore a runoff in which Lyra begins ahead and ultimately wins, though a late consolidation around Campos could narrow or erase that edge.

Points to YES

Lyra holds consistent leads over Campos in both first-round and runoff polling.
The August 25–27 DataTrends poll placed Lyra ahead 45% to 36% in the first round and 47% to 39% in a potential runoff.
Strong approval of Lyra’s administration gives her incumbency a broad electoral foundation.
The August 21–24 Quaest poll found Lyra’s government approved by 68% and disapproved by 24%.
Lyra’s support appears more firmly established than Campos’s support.
In the August 18–20 Datafolha poll, 77% of Lyra’s stimulated-vote supporters named her spontaneously, compared with 62% of Campos’s supporters.

Points to NO

Lula’s endorsement and the PT’s formal backing give Campos a powerful route to consolidate undecided and allied voters.
By August 25, the PT had formally backed Campos after Lula recorded a June video endorsing him, while half of voters said they preferred a governor allied with Lula.
Campos’s strength among women and metropolitan voters exposes important weaknesses in Lyra’s coalition.
The August 18–20 Datafolha poll showed Campos leading Lyra 44% to 42% among women and 49% to 36% in Pernambuco’s metropolitan region.

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