Will above -25000 jobs be added in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Kalshi84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Broad forecasts point to renewed job growth, so August U.S. nonfarm payrolls finishing above a 25,000-job loss is highly likely.

Most estimates call for renewed job growth, while low unemployment claims offer little evidence of a sudden labor-market break. The threshold is forgiving: July’s 23,000-job decline would still have cleared it. Weak hiring breadth, large prior revisions and immigration-related job losses leave room for a sharp disappointment, but an August decline exceeding 25,000 would require conditions to deteriorate beyond what the available indicators suggest.

Points to YES

Central estimates place August payroll growth comfortably above the loss threshold.
On August 31, 2026, a reported consensus estimate called for 58,000 additional August nonfarm payroll jobs.
Even July’s weak payroll result remained above the threshold required for YES.
On August 7, 2026, the reported July payroll decline was 23,000 jobs, still above the question’s 25,000-job loss threshold.
Low jobless claims do not indicate a sudden surge in layoffs during August.
On August 27, 2026, initial U.S. jobless claims were reported at 203,000, down from a revised 207,000 the preceding week.

Points to NO

Hiring remains concentrated in a small number of sectors, increasing vulnerability to a weak headline.
On August 28, 2026, RBC Economics assessed that new hiring had been limited outside health care, social assistance and non-residential construction.
Immigration-status changes could produce a meaningful one-time drag on August payrolls.
On August 31, 2026, Goldman Sachs expected the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants to subtract around 15,000 jobs from August payrolls.

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