Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 12

Forecast updated

Aug 7 forecast

Peggy Flanagan is likely the Democratic Senate nominee, backed by the party endorsement and a strong primary poll lead despite one tied survey.

Peggy Flanagan is favored to become Minnesota’s Democratic Senate nominee. She won the state party’s DFL endorsement on May 30, giving her organizational backing, while her main rival Angie Craig skipped the convention to run in the primary. A July PPP poll of likely Democratic primary voters showed Flanagan ahead 46 percent to 32 percent, a substantial margin. However, a separate KSTP/SurveyUSA poll from July showed the two candidates tied at 40 percent, introducing real uncertainty. The primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026, and as of August 7 no vote has taken place and no results are available. Because endorsements and polling advantages in low-turnout primaries often translate into victory, Flanagan is the more likely winner, though the conflicting survey means the outcome is not certain. The resolution awaits the party’s announcement of the primary winner.

Points to YES

Flanagan secured the Minnesota DFL endorsement in late May, giving her party infrastructure and signaling strength heading into the primary.
Flanagan won DFL endorsement May 30, 2026; Craig skipped convention to go straight to primary.
A July PPP poll shows Flanagan leading Craig by 14 points among likely Democratic primary voters, suggesting a clear voter preference.
Poll (PPP, July 23-24, 2026) shows Flanagan leading Craig 46%-32% among likely Democratic primary voters.
Craig skipped the endorsement convention to go straight to the primary, which can signal weakness in party-base consolidation and may limit her organizational reach compared with the endorsed candidate.
Flanagan won DFL endorsement May 30, 2026; Craig skipped convention to go straight to primary.

Points to NO

A conflicting July KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows the race tied at 40% each, indicating Craig remains competitive and turnout dynamics could erase Flanagan’s lead.
Another poll (KSTP/SurveyUSA, July 2026) shows Craig and Flanagan neck-and-neck at 40% each.

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