Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Sep 1?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin is above $78,250 and has repeatedly rebounded from sub-$78,000 dips, so a qualifying September 1 price is likely.

The settlement-basis price is $78,825.09, only 0.73% above the threshold, while several August 31 readings show Bitcoin recovering quickly after falling below $78,000. That resilience makes an above-threshold September 1 observation the more likely outcome, but the narrow cushion, large intraday swings, and unspecified observation convention leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a narrow lead over the required threshold.
On August 31, a CoinCodex snapshot placed Bitcoin at approximately $78,796.58, above $78,250.
Buyers have repeatedly restored the threshold after intraday selloffs.
On August 31, Bitcoin reclaimed $78,500 in just over 30 minutes after another dip below $78,000.

Points to NO

Recent volatility can erase the current cushion quickly.
Bitcoin traded as low as $77,024 during the August 31 session.
The rules leave the exact September 1 observation time, venue, and fixing convention unspecified.
As supplied on August 31, the question sets a $78,250 threshold but provides no clarification identifying the applicable observation convention.
Short-term technical evidence does not show one-sided upward control.
On August 31, Bitcoin's technical indicators combined a bearish momentum signal with a bullish MACD signal.

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