Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Polymarket21¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 31

Forecast updated

Sep 17 forecast

Recent polls show Likud averaging just over 20 seats, so a sub-20 finish is unlikely with six weeks remaining.

Polls consistently show Likud averaging around 21 seats, with most projections between 20 and 23 seats. The balance of the evidence leans toward Likud finishing above the 20-seat threshold, but several recent polls (18-19 seats) and the party's steady erosion since the 2022 election create a genuine risk of a sub-20 result. With 40 days of campaigning left and the possibility of late shifts, the probability accounts for the minority of scenarios where Likud's support slips further without a recovery.

Points to NO

Recent polls average 21.2 seats for Likud, above the 20-seat threshold.
Across five polls published September 17, Likud averages 21.2 seats.
Long-term trend shows Likud's popularity has plummeted from 32 seats in 2022, but it still sits just above 20.
Likud won 32 seats in November 2022, and polls now show it around 20-23.

Points to YES

Channel 13 poll from September 15 shows Likud at just 18 seats.
A Channel 13 poll on September 15 projected Likud winning 18 seats.
Maariv poll from September 9 shows Likud at 19 seats.
A Lazar Research/Maariv poll on September 9 gave Likud 19 seats.

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