Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,250 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+233%$100 paper stake

Kalshi30¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES30¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updatedSep 3

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin is only 0.33% short after a powerful daily rally, so an $81,250-or-higher settlement is favored.

Bitcoin is at $80,984.24, only 0.33% below the threshold after a strong daily advance. The price has already traded above $81,250 intraday, showing that only a modest rebound is required. Immediate resistance and concentrated selling supply near current levels leave substantial room for a late reversal, but an above-threshold settlement remains favored.

Points to YES

Strong daily momentum makes another short upward move plausible.
At 16:08:11 on September 3, Bitcoin was up 5.12% over the preceding 24 hours.
Bitcoin has already demonstrated the ability to clear the threshold today.
September 3 intraday data recorded a high of $81,266, which was $16 above the threshold.
Bitcoin's broader short-term technical structure remains constructive despite immediate resistance.
On September 3, Bitcoin remained above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

Points to NO

Bitcoin currently sits just below the settlement threshold.
On September 3, the settlement-basis current price was $80,984.24, leaving Bitcoin 0.33% below $81,250.
Dense holder supply near the current price could generate breakeven selling.
On September 3, approximately 8% of Bitcoin supply was concentrated between $80,000 and $82,000.

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