Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake

Polymarket48¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES48¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Sep 30 forecast

Several of the newest polls place Renan Santos near 3%, so a 2%–4% valid-vote finish is narrowly favored.

Several recent readings cluster inside the bracket, including estimates of 3% and 2.7%. However, AtlasIntel’s 5.3% valid-vote result and Meio/Ideia’s 4.5% show substantial overshoot risk, while an exact 4% result belongs to the higher bracket. With only the final campaign days remaining, the in-range cluster narrowly outweighs the conflicting higher readings, but modest late movement or polling error could still push the official share outside the bracket.

Points to YES

The newest polling aggregation places Santos near the middle of the target bracket.
On September 30, the BBC News Brasil polling aggregator reported Santos at 3% of first-round voting intention.
A poll conducted through September 29 puts Santos securely inside the bracket.
The September 27–29 Indexa/Broadcast poll reported 3% first-round voting intention for Santos.
Another late poll places Santos above the lower boundary and below the upper boundary.
The September 26–28 Vox Brasil poll reported 2.7% first-round voting intention for Santos.

Points to NO

A recent valid-vote poll shows a clear overshoot beyond the bracket.
The September 23–28 AtlasIntel poll reported Santos at 5.3% of valid first-round votes.
A separate late poll also places Santos above the bracket’s excluded upper boundary.
The September 25–28 Meio/Ideia poll reported 4.5% first-round voting intention for Santos.

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