Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 30?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi32¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin entered August 30 below the threshold after reversing sharply from $81,300, so a price of at least $78,500 is unlikely.

Bitcoin entered August 30 below $78,500 after a rapid retreat from above $81,000. The decline broke recent momentum, triggered substantial leveraged liquidations and restored resistance near $80,000. Positive institutional demand and recent trading above the threshold keep a rebound plausible, but an August 30 price of at least $78,500 is unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin began August 30 below the required level after retreating from a recent high near $81,280.
On August 30, Bitcoin was trading in the $77,000-$78,000 range after retreating from a recent high around $81,280.
The latest decline was abrupt enough to liquidate leveraged positions and weaken near-term momentum.
On August 28, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 and $478 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.
The August 28 close below $80,000 turned that level back into resistance above the resolution threshold.
On August 28, Bitcoin closed below $80,000 after its decline, turning that level back into resistance.

Points to YES

US institutional buying remained evident despite the price decline.
On August 29, the Coinbase premium turned positive, indicating that US institutional buyers were paying more than offshore buyers.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand was strong over the latest full trading week.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a combined $924.5 million during the August 24-28 trading week.
Bitcoin traded well above $78,500 shortly before the measurement date, showing that the threshold remains reachable in a volatile session.
Bitcoin reached an August 28 high of roughly $81,300.

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