Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Sep 6?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+59%$100 paper stake

Kalshi63¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES63¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 6

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Bitcoin remains above the threshold with little time left, so a September 6 settlement at or above $79,500 is likely.

Bitcoin’s settlement-basis price is $79,938.84, leaving a slim cushion above $79,500 with 14.9 hours remaining. Several September 6 observations also exceeded the threshold, and roughly stable trading would preserve an above-threshold settlement. However, Bitcoin already fell to about $79,000 after trading above $80,000 earlier the same day, showing that the cushion can disappear quickly. The current position and short remaining window make an above-threshold settlement likely, while thin weekend trading and recent sharp swings leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin enters the final hours above the settlement threshold.
On September 6, the supplied settlement-basis price was $79,938.84, compared with the $79,500 threshold.
Independent same-day observations have also placed Bitcoin above $79,500.
On September 6, Bitcoin traded near $79,910.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide background buying support.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs received $986.9 million of net inflows in the week ending September 5.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already crossed below the threshold during the settlement day.
Earlier on September 6, Bitcoin quickly dropped to approximately $79,000 after trading above $80,000.
Thin weekend liquidity can amplify a move through the narrow cushion.
On September 5, Paul Howard said thinner weekend liquidity could amplify Bitcoin moves in either direction.

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