Will the gold close price be above 4411.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Kalshi79¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Gold remains above $4,411.99 with limited time to settle, so an August 31 close above the threshold is highly likely.

Gold is currently at $4,467.58, leaving a modest cushion above the settlement threshold with less than two days remaining. The sharp August 28 decline and thin holiday liquidity create meaningful downside risk, but recent spot readings and session lows have remained above $4,411.99. An August 31 close above the threshold is highly likely, though a sudden move can still erase the cushion.

Points to YES

Gold’s latest direct spot reading remained comfortably above the settlement threshold.
JM Bullion reported gold at $4,467.20 per troy ounce at 12:16 a.m. EDT on August 30, 2026.
Gold stayed above the threshold even at its recent session low.
Kitco recorded an August 28 low of $4,444.80, above $4,411.99.

Points to NO

The latest major session showed that gold can fall sharply enough to threaten the cushion.
Gold fell 3.18% to $4,454.08 per troy ounce on August 28, 2026.
Technical support sits only modestly above the settlement threshold.
On August 28, Fawad Razaqzada identified support around $4,436 and then $4,400, warning that absent buyers there would be bearish.
The holiday schedule may amplify abrupt price moves near settlement.
On August 29, the NordFX Analytical Group assessed that the August 31 U.S. Labor Day holiday would thin early-week liquidity.

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