Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+69%$100 paper stake

Polymarket59¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES59¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 26

Forecast updated

Oct 21 forecast

YES: Q 68.9% · Market odds 58.5% at forecast

Statewide margin. Lula won Amazonas statewide in the October 4 first round by 70,232 votes.

Main caution: Flávio Bolsonaro's dominance in Manaus could offset Lula's statewide advantage.

Evidence and updates

Late polling. Lula led the mid-October Amazonas statewide polls by roughly nine points of valid-vote intention.

Interior strength. Lula holds a wide lead across the Amazonas interior, which carries most of the state's municipalities.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q +5.3 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-21T14:22:07.750706+00:00 · 2026-10-21T14:17:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Will Lula's interior margins hold on October 25 if turnout drops in remote municipalities, given that the Amazonas Regional Electoral Court denied transport support for 44 Indigenous villages in the Javari Valley where first-round abstention was estimated at 30% to 35%?

Statewide margin

Late polling

Interior strength

Main caution

Points to YES

Lula finished the October 4 first round ahead statewide in Amazonas, 48.23% to 45.00%, a margin of 70,232 votes, and won 54 of the state's 62 municipalities.
Official Amazonas first-round results from October 4, 2026 show Lula with 1,046,996 votes, or 48.23% of valid votes, against 976,764 votes, or 45.00%, for Flávio Bolsonaro.
The most recent statewide Amazonas polling puts Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by a wide margin in valid-vote intentions.
A Pontual Pesquisas poll of 2,000 Amazonas voters conducted October 9–15 put Lula at 54.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.7% of valid-vote intentions statewide.
Lula's support is concentrated in the Amazonas interior, which carries most of the state's municipalities and voters outside the capital.
The Pontual Pesquisas poll of October 9–15 put Lula at 62.5% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.5% of valid-vote intentions in the Amazonas interior.

Points to NO

Flávio Bolsonaro dominates Manaus, the state's largest single bloc of voters, by a margin that can offset Lula's interior gains.
Flávio Bolsonaro took 641,864 votes, or 54.28% of valid votes, in Manaus in the October 4 first round, while Lula took 439,027 votes, or 37.13%.
Denied transport support for remote Indigenous villages could suppress turnout in interior areas that lean toward Lula.
On October 20 the Amazonas Regional Electoral Court denied logistics support for voters from 44 Indigenous villages in the Javari Valley, where first-round abstention was estimated at 30% to 35%.

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