Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,250 on Sep 1?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

Bitcoin remains roughly $750 above the threshold with hours left, so a September 1 settlement at or above $77,250 is likely.

The current settlement-basis price is $78,000.249, placing Bitcoin modestly above the required $77,250. Several September 1 observations also remained above the threshold, and little time remains for the cushion to disappear. However, Bitcoin has already traded around or below the cutoff, while weakening spot demand and elevated leverage create meaningful downside risk. A threshold settlement is therefore more likely than a sub-threshold finish, but not secure.

Points to YES

Bitcoin was recently $654 above the resolution threshold, providing a modest late-session cushion.
On September 1, 2026, Bitcoin traded at $77,904, compared with the $77,250 threshold.
Recent Kraken trading remained above the threshold, including the displayed daily low.
On September 1, 2026, Kraken displayed a 24-hour Bitcoin low of $77,773.75.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already demonstrated enough intraday volatility to cross below the threshold.
During the 24 hours preceding the Asian morning of September 1, 2026, Bitcoin traded as low as roughly $77,200.
Spot buying momentum weakened sharply, increasing the risk that the narrow cushion fails.
On August 31, 2026, Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta had fallen from $279.7 million to negative $67.2 million.

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