Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,500 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi50¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO50¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updatedSep 3

Same-day quotes remained below $81,500 despite a sharp rally, so an $81,500-or-higher Bitcoin settlement is a meaningful underdog.

The settlement-basis price sits at $81,455, barely below the threshold, while earlier same-day quotes were lower. Bitcoin’s strong rally keeps a crossing live, but nearby selling supply and the short remaining window make an $81,500-or-higher settlement the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

Available same-day spot readings remained below the settlement threshold.
On September 3, Investing.com showed Bitcoin at $81,230.9 and reported a daily high of $81,266.0, both below $81,500.
Heavy holder supply around the strike may resist the final upward move.
On September 3, Glassnode assessed that approximately 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was concentrated between $80,000 and $82,000.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is close enough to the strike for ordinary short-term volatility to produce a qualifying settlement.
On September 3, the settlement-basis price was $81,455, only slightly below the $81,500 strike.
A powerful same-day rally shows that buyers can move Bitcoin rapidly.
On September 3, Bitcoin rose from an opening value of $77,348.9 to $81,230.8, a gain of about 5%.

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