Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Polymarket20¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO80¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 22

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Oman has not confirmed Iran’s claimed corridor and major terms remain disputed, so a qualifying Hormuz traffic agreement by the deadline is a long shot.

Iran’s claim that a corridor has been agreed keeps a narrow path open, but Oman recently said negotiations had produced no solution and has since described only continued diplomatic efforts. Disagreement over fees, renewed tanker attacks, and Iran’s threat to maintain restrictions all impede rapid finalization. With little time remaining, the evidence points strongly toward the deadline passing without matching, unambiguous acceptance from both governments.

Points to NO

Oman recently said negotiations had not yet produced a solution for restoring freedom of navigation.
On September 4, 2026, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said no solution had yet been reached in the negotiations.
Renewed attacks and Iranian restrictions make a rapid diplomatic traffic arrangement harder to complete.
On September 5, 2026, Iranian forces targeted three tankers that Iran said were using unauthorized routes through the strait.
Oman reportedly rejected even voluntary fees, leaving a central traffic-management issue unsettled.
On September 3, 2026, a high-ranking regional official said Oman had declined to consent to charging voluntary environmental and security service fees.

Points to YES

An Iranian official now claims that Oman agreed to a new jointly involving corridor, with details expected soon.
On September 6, 2026, Mohsen Rezaei said a new international corridor involving Iran and Oman had been agreed with Oman and would be managed by Iran.
Both governments have an established negotiating framework covering a temporary corridor and longer-term traffic management.
On August 25, 2026, the Iranian and Omani foreign ministers discussed a phased navigation framework that included a joint temporary corridor.

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