Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Jul 6 forecast

United Russia will very likely post the largest seat gain because a 2025 ban on by-elections depressed its current count, guaranteeing a big rebound.

ER enjoys a massive structural advantage due to a legally frozen baseline that guarantees a +14-seat 'phantom' gain, which, combined with highly favorable proportional redistribution mechanics, mathematically forecloses most opposition paths to victory.

No factor breakdown on this forecast.

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