Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket59¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES59¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 5

Forecast updated

Oct 29 forecast

YES: Q 66.7% · Market odds 58.5% at forecast

District lean. NC-13's redrawn Republican-leaning lines and R+8 index give Brad Knott a structural advantage.

Main caution: Democratic early-voting turnout in North Carolina is running far above its 2022 pace.

Evidence and updates

District forecasts. Four separate NC-13 forecasts put Brad Knott ahead by between seven and ten points.

Campaign resources. Brad Knott raised more than Paul Barringer and held more cash as of mid-October.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −0.5 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-29T13:08:35.044592+00:00 · 2026-10-29T13:04:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Do any late NC-13 district polls or county-level turnout reports show Paul Barringer cutting the Republican margin to the low single digits before November 3?

District lean

Cook Political Report's NC-13 Partisan Voting Index was R+8, last updated November 17, 2025.
Donald Trump won NC-13 by 17 points in 2024.

District forecasts

Decision Desk HQ's October 28 NC-13 forecast projected a Republican margin of 7 points.
Vote-Scope's October 29 NC-13 forecast had an average Republican lead of 9.8 points and classified the district as a safe seat.
Pollsmax projected Brad Knott to receive 54.1% and Paul Barringer 45.9%, a Republican margin of 8.2 percentage points, in its October 29 NC-13 update.

Campaign resources

As of October 14, Brad Knott had raised $1,697,075.23, spent $1,094,864.35, and held $619,470.98 in cash.
As of October 14, Paul Barringer had raised $1,215,150.98, spent $805,628.54, and held $409,522.44 in cash.

Main caution

Through October 27, registered Democrats had cast 792,033 North Carolina early-voting ballots, 42% more than at the same point in the 2022 midterms.
As of Tuesday, 1.77 million ballots had been cast in North Carolina, including nearly 41% by registered Democrats, 34% by unaffiliated voters, and 24% by registered Republicans.

Points to YES

NC-13 was redrawn in 2023 to heavily favor Republicans, and the district's partisan index stands at R+8.
Cook Political Report's NC-13 Partisan Voting Index was R+8, last updated November 17, 2025.
Every published district forecast projects Brad Knott winning NC-13 by roughly seven to ten points.
Decision Desk HQ's October 28 NC-13 forecast projected a Republican margin of 7 points.
NC-13's recent presidential and congressional results give Brad Knott a wide historical cushion.
Donald Trump won NC-13 by 17 points in 2024, and Brad Knott won the seat that year by more than 70,000 votes.

Points to NO

North Carolina Democratic early-voting turnout is running far above its 2022 pace, giving Paul Barringer a larger starting vote pool.
Through October 27, registered Democrats had cast 792,033 North Carolina early-voting ballots, 42% more than at the same point in the 2022 midterms.
The national generic-ballot environment favors Democrats by a wide margin, which raises the swing needed against Brad Knott.
Silver Bulletin's October 28 generic-ballot average had Democrats ahead nationally by 8.7 points, widening to 9.2 points after a likely-voter adjustment.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.