Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Sep 8?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin trades at $79,428 with less than a day remaining, so settlement at or above $78,250 on September 8 is likely.

Bitcoin is currently at $79,428, modestly above the threshold with limited time remaining. The latest evidence is mixed: daily trends and fund inflows are supportive, while hourly momentum is bearish and recent rallies have met selling pressure. The cushion and short window make an above-threshold settlement more likely, though a rapid selloff remains a meaningful risk.

Points to YES

Bitcoin entered the final stretch above the threshold and recently absorbed an intraday decline without crossing it.
On September 7, 2026, Bitcoin fell to $79,013 before recovering toward $79,500, keeping the session low above $78,250.
Bitcoin's broader daily trend remains supportive despite weaker short-term momentum.
On September 7, 2026, Bitcoin remained above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide a supportive demand backdrop.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million of net inflows from September 1 through September 4, 2026.

Points to NO

Short-term momentum points downward and could erase the remaining cushion quickly.
On September 7, 2026, Bitcoin was below its 20- and 50-period hourly exponential moving averages, while its 15-minute moving averages were bearishly ordered.
Overhead selling pressure limits room for Bitcoin to build a safer buffer before settlement.
By September 7, 2026, Bitcoin had repeatedly encountered selling pressure between roughly $80,500 and $82,500.

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