Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Polymarket26¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 2

Forecast updated

Sep 23 forecast

Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in polls and incumbency advantage, so Andrey Gyurov winning the presidency is unlikely.

Polling and recent election results strongly favor incumbent Iliana Iotova, making a Gyurov victory a long shot. The 12% probability reflects the small possibility that a late endorsement from a major party like GERB, or an unforeseen shift in public sentiment, could upset the race. Historically, the first-round winner in Bulgarian presidential elections has always won the runoff, but the margin is not always insurmountable—and with 32 days remaining, the window for such a shift is still open, if narrow.

Points to NO

Iliana Iotova holds a dominant polling lead over Andrey Gyurov, projected to receive more than double his first-round vote.
Sociologist Andrey Raychev forecast 1.1 million votes for Iotova versus 450,000 for Gyurov in the first round.
Incumbent President Iliana Iotova leads the Progressive Bulgaria movement, which secured a decisive parliamentary plurality earlier this year.
Progressive Bulgaria won 44.6% of the vote in the April 2026 parliamentary election, far ahead of any other party.
Andrey Gyurov has a negative net trust balance, indicating limited public confidence beyond his reformist base.
Global Metrics measured a negative net trust balance of -10% for Andrey Gyurov, compared to +31% for Iotova.

Points to YES

Gyurov is backed by the reformist Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria parties, which together form his core electorate.
Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria formally expressed support for the Gyurov-Kandev ticket on September 1.

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