Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+92%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 14

Forecast updated

Oct 8 forecast

YES: Q 66.8% · Market odds 51.5% at forecast

Gasoline prices. Higher gasoline prices could push September inflation above the cutoff.

Main caution: Several other estimates round to 0.5% or less, below the required reading.

Evidence and updates

Inflation estimate. One September CPI preview forecasts a monthly increase above the 0.5% cutoff.

Forecast updated. Q +1.7 pts; odds +3.0 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-08T14:27:07.517000+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-10-08T14:03:59.577965000+00:00.

Ask Q: Is the final energy contribution large enough for the published headline CPI increase to reach 0.6%?

Gasoline prices

Inflation estimate

The September CPI preview forecast overall CPI to rise 0.6% month over month, with an unrounded estimate of 0.57%.

Main caution

Points to YES

September's sharp gasoline and crude-oil increases put substantial upward pressure on headline CPI.
On October 6, reported September Brent crude averaged $114 per barrel, $23 above August, while U.S. retail gasoline averaged $4.35 per gallon.
A detailed CPI preview placed the unrounded increase high enough to produce a 0.6% published reading.
On September 29, the preview forecast September headline CPI at 0.57% unrounded and 0.6% rounded, with energy rising 5.5%.
Multiple recent estimates place headline CPI near the boundary, corroborating a substantial energy-driven monthly increase.
On October 8, GlobalMacroLens estimated 0.54% headline CPI and the Cleveland Fed nowcast showed 0.53% for September.

Points to NO

One final forecast points clearly below the unrounded level usually needed for a 0.6% published print.
On October 5, XTech's final unrounded September headline CPI forecast was 0.463%.
Soft shelter inflation limits the support available beyond the gasoline-driven energy increase.
On October 1, Zillow projected September owners' equivalent rent growth of 0.22% and primary-residence rent growth of 0.17%.

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