Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket63¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES63¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 18 forecast

Recent polls consistently place Linke between 9% and 11%, so the party's second-vote share is likely to fall within the 8% to 11% window.

All major polling institutes from late August through mid-September place Die Linke between 9% and 11% of second votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with a central tendency around 10%. This consistent range supports the outcome falling within the 8-11% bracket. While 21-25% of voters remain undecided, historical precedent and the party's stable base make a sharp deviation unlikely. The 2021 baseline of 9.9% further anchors expectations. Given the absence of last-minute shocks, the party's vote share is likely to land within the defined window.

Points to YES

Polling consensus clusters Linke between 9% and 11%.
In mid-September, ZDF-Politbarometer (Sep 14-17) recorded 9%, INSA (Sep 8-15) recorded 10%, and Infratest dimap (Sep 7-9) recorded 9%.
Linke's 2021 result provides a historical anchor within the bracket.
In the 2021 state election, Linke won 9.9% of the vote.

Points to NO

A substantial share of voters remain undecided.
On September 17, ZDF-Politbarometer reported 21% of eligible voters were undecided.
Polling margins of error allow for results outside the bracket.
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen states a polling error margin of ±2 percentage points for a 10% vote share.

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