Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi43¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO57¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin remains below the threshold after a sharp reversal from above $81,000, so a $79,000-or-higher September 4 price is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin is currently about 1.46% below the strike, and its retreat from above $81,000 shows that nearby selling pressure is strong. The evidence therefore leans against a qualifying September 4 price. Still, the threshold remains within reach: Bitcoin crossed it repeatedly in late August, and the recent rally was supported by spot demand rather than rising leverage.

Points to NO

Bitcoin begins the final days below the $79,000 threshold, requiring a renewed advance before settlement.
On August 31 at 4:30 AM UTC, Bitcoin traded at $77,518.89, while the day's reported range remained entirely below $79,000.
The late-August rally reversed sharply, signaling strong selling pressure near recent highs.
From an intraday peak above $81,000 on August 28, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 over the ensuing weekend.
Higher-rate and geopolitical pressures create an unfavorable backdrop for a near-term cryptocurrency rebound.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained too high and suggested interest-rate increases might be needed in coming months.

Points to YES

The August advance was driven mainly by spot buying, giving the rally a firmer foundation than a leverage-led surge.
On August 31, QCP Capital assessed that Bitcoin's August advance had been led primarily by spot buying rather than leverage.
Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated that the $79,000 threshold is reachable at current volatility.
Coinbase Pro daily highs exceeded $79,000 on every day from August 24 through August 28.

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