Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake

Polymarket82¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES82¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Crowley leads every supplied general-election measure while Democrats benefit from a hostile national environment for Republicans, so a Democratic victory is highly likely.

Crowley leads in both recent Marquette polls and the supplied polling average, while independent voters currently favor him by a wide margin. The broader political environment also favors Democrats, with Trump’s weak Wisconsin approval creating a burden for Tiffany. The visible polling advantage remains narrow, Tiffany has more money, and Wisconsin routinely produces close statewide contests. Even so, Crowley’s consistent lead, stronger support among independents, and the national headwinds facing Republicans make a Democratic victory highly likely.

Points to YES

Crowley holds a consistent but narrow lead in recent measures of the general election.
On September 23, Crowley led Tiffany by 49% to 46% among likely voters and 46% to 45% among registered voters.
Independent voters currently provide Crowley with a potentially decisive advantage.
On September 23, likely independent voters supported Crowley by 44% to 18% over Tiffany, although 38% remained undecided.
The national political environment weighs against the Republican nominee.
On October 1, the Cook Political Report assessed that Republicans faced a grim national environment and Democrats were benefiting from Trump’s poor approval ratings.

Points to NO

Tiffany has a large financial advantage for the closing campaign.
By September 30, Tiffany had raised more than $26 million over two months, more than twice Crowley’s total, and had outspent him on advertising.
Crowley’s personal standing has deteriorated as the race has tightened.
By September 23, Crowley’s net favorability had fallen from positive 4 points in August to negative 13 points in September, while his likely-voter lead narrowed.

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