Will Ethereum be at or above $2,490 on Aug 27?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+85%$100 paper stake

Kalshi54¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES54¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updatedAug 27

Aug 27 forecast

Ethereum was already just above the cutoff early Thursday amid persistent spot demand, so a price of at least $2,490 at 5 p.m. is likely.

Early Thursday quotes placed Ethereum slightly above the required level after it had traded on both sides of the cutoff. Falling exchange reserves and restricted liquid supply support the affirmative outcome, but the narrow cushion, overbought momentum and fading futures demand leave meaningful uncertainty around the exact-time reading.

Points to YES

Ethereum entered the final day slightly above the cutoff, reducing the additional buying needed and making an above-threshold reading more likely.
At 4:00 a.m. ET on August 27, Ethereum was $2,494.66, up 1.01% on the day.
Net withdrawals from exchanges indicate underlying spot demand that could absorb afternoon selling and support the price near the cutoff.
On August 27, exchange reserves were reported to have fallen by roughly 101,000 ETH during the preceding week despite increased unrealized profits.
A smaller pool of readily tradable Ethereum makes fresh demand more price-sensitive and helps defend the elevated range.
An August 26 report said more than 42 million ETH was staked and exchange balances had fallen 15% from early June to mid-August.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and cooling fund flows increase the risk that profit-taking pushes Ethereum below the cutoff before the reading.
At 4:00 a.m. ET on August 27, RSI was 83.305 and Williams %R was 5.206, while spot-fund flows were reported to be cooling with intermittent net outflows.
Fading futures participation suggests the short-covering impulse is losing force, making it harder to sustain prices above nearby resistance.
On August 27, open interest was reported to have fallen by roughly 500,000 ETH over the preceding week despite positive net taker volume.

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