Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 10

Forecast updated

Oct 1 forecast

Late-September support sits below a majority amid a heavily funded opposition campaign, so Proposition 40’s passage is unlikely.

Proposition 40 secured its ballot place, but recent polls show support below a majority and opposition closing the gap. Opponents also hold an overwhelming fundraising advantage, while the governor and several major labor groups oppose the measure. Earlier majority support and prominent endorsements leave a path to passage, but the most likely outcome is that Proposition 40 falls short.

Points to NO

Late polling shows Proposition 40 below majority support as opposition closes the gap.
On September 30, a Citrin Center-Politico poll reported support had fallen from 52% in March to 45%, while opposition had risen from 33% to 43%.
The opposition campaign has an overwhelming financial advantage for the closing stretch.
As of October 1, opponents had raised more than $205 million to defeat Proposition 40.
Prominent Democratic and labor opposition makes passage harder in constituencies the measure needs.
On September 24, Governor Gavin Newsom opposed Proposition 40 and warned that it could drive wealthy residents and businesses from California.

Points to YES

Proposition 40 cleared the certification hurdle and will receive a statewide vote.
On June 25, the California Secretary of State certified Proposition 40 for the November 3 general-election ballot.
The measure has demonstrated that majority support remains attainable.
A September 4–10 survey found 52% of likely voters supported Proposition 40 after reading its ballot title and label.

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