Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+122%$100 paper stake

Kalshi55¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO45¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin remains just 0.12% below the threshold with hours remaining, so a $79,000-or-higher settlement is less likely than not.

Recent international spot readings sit below $79,000, and Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $80,000 after rejecting from $82,266. That makes a below-threshold settlement the more likely outcome. Still, the settlement-basis price is only 0.12% short with 16.4 hours left, small enough for ordinary intraday movement to produce a qualifying print.

Points to NO

Bitcoin remains below the $79,000 threshold on the settlement basis.
On September 9, 2026, the settlement-basis price was $78,905.86, leaving it 0.12% below the strike with 16.4 hours remaining.
Repeated failures above $80,000 indicate weak upward follow-through.
On September 9, Bitcoin fell below $79,250 trendline support after failing to remain above $80,000.
Most same-day international price observations have remained below the threshold.
At 8:00 a.m. on September 9, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin at $78,510, down 0.59% from the previous day.

Points to YES

The threshold is close enough to be crossed by a modest intraday move.
On September 9, 2026, Bitcoin stood only 0.12% below the $79,000 settlement threshold.
Recent trading demonstrates ample intraday range to retake $79,000.
On September 9, Bitcoin reached $82,266 before being rejected back below $81,000.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.