Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+45%$100 paper stake

Polymarket31¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO69¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 17

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

The latest polls place S at or just above the threshold, so winning less than 27% is unlikely.

The two freshest national polls put Social Democratic support at 27.0% and 27.1%, while several other recent surveys are higher. That evidence points to a finish at or above the threshold, reinforced by the party’s 28.26% result in 2018 and 30.33% in 2022. A below-threshold result remains live because one recent poll reached 25.8%, Ipsos recorded a sustained decline, and many voters may still move during the final days.

Points to NO

The freshest polling places Social Democratic support barely above the cutoff.
Published September 7, Novus measured Social Democratic support at 27.0% after fieldwork conducted September 1–5.
A second recent poll independently places the party just above the threshold.
The DN/Ipsos poll completed September 7 measured Social Democratic support at 27.1%.
Other recent surveys remain comfortably above 27%, limiting confidence in a below-threshold finish.
Verian’s September voter barometer, published September 3, measured Social Democratic support at 29.2%.

Points to YES

The party has recently polled below the threshold, showing that a YES result is attainable.
Novus measured Social Democratic support at 25.8% during August 24–30.
Ipsos shows a persistent downward trend that could continue through election day.
Published September 7, DN/Ipsos recorded the ninth consecutive measurement in which Social Democratic support declined.

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