Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 28

Forecast updated

Sep 11 forecast

Most economists expect rates to remain unchanged through 2026, so a zero-basis-point October move is favored.

The freshest evidence cuts against a hold: core inflation exceeded expectations, producer prices accelerated, and hawkish commentary strengthened. Even so, an October hold remains favored because most surveyed economists expect no further 2026 changes, while several major-bank paths place increases in September and December but skip October. The intervening September meeting gives the Fed an earlier opportunity to respond, though multiple major data releases before October leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Most surveyed economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates through the remainder of 2026.
In a September 4–9 poll, 52 of 93 economists forecast unchanged rates for all of 2026.
Several major-bank policy paths include other 2026 increases while omitting October.
As of August 26, Deutsche forecast quarter-point increases in September and December, with no October increase specified.
The FOMC's latest completed meeting still produced a clear majority for unchanged rates.
On July 29, the FOMC held its target range unchanged in a 9–3 vote.

Points to NO

The latest inflation readings increase pressure for further tightening.
Core U.S. inflation was hotter than expected on September 11.
Some prominent policy voices are moving toward tighter policy.
On September 10, Claudia Sahm said rising inflation risks had moved her from favoring a hold to favoring an increase.

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