Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Aug 25?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi29¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES29¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 25

Multiple live spot and reference readings exceeded $79,500 on August 25, so Bitcoin clearing the day's threshold is likely.

Bitcoin crossed the threshold on several live readings after a powerful rally. Strong spot demand favors continued support, but overbought conditions, downside hedging, and resistance around $80,000 make Bitcoin clearing the threshold likely.

Points to YES

Live readings above the threshold provide a cushion, raising the chance that the applicable August 25 observation also clears $79,500.
At 08:23:10 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Real-Time Index stood at $80,034.51.
Broad upward momentum supports further buying and makes an immediate full reversal below the threshold less likely.
At 05:51 UTC on August 25, Bitcoin was about $80,704 after rising roughly 25% over seven days from around $64,000.
Large spot ETF inflows add underlying demand that can absorb profit-taking and support prices near the threshold.
On August 24, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were reported to have attracted $1.92 billion during the prior week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and concentrated selling pressure increase the risk of a sharp pullback through the nearby threshold.
On August 25, Bitcoin's momentum indicator was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Persistent demand for downside protection signals concern about a reversal, increasing the chance of a late drop below $79,500.
At 05:51 UTC on August 25, Bitcoin's seven-day options skew remained negative even after the price moved above $80,000.

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