Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Polymarket78¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 6

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Moro leads every recent first-round and runoff matchup by clear margins, so his victory in the Paraná governor’s race is highly likely.

Moro holds a clear first-round lead across several recent surveys and defeats both principal rivals in runoff matchups. His strongest threat is Sandro Alex, who can draw on a popular governor’s endorsement and continuity message. Even so, that support has not yet erased Moro’s advantage. High rejection and a still-fluid electorate leave room for tightening, but the opposition must gain substantially in little time.

Points to YES

Moro’s broad first-round lead makes him highly likely to advance and forces rivals to overcome a substantial campaign deficit.
The August 24–27 Real Time Big Data survey placed Moro at 35%, ahead of Sandro Alex at 23% and Requião Filho at 20%.
Moro leads both plausible runoff opponents, giving him more than one viable route to an eventual victory.
The August 24–27 Real Time Big Data runoff tests had Moro leading Requião Filho by 54% to 27% and Sandro Alex by 44% to 32%.
Moro’s advantage appears across different polling organizations, reducing the chance that his lead is an isolated survey result.
The August 20–23 Quaest survey placed Moro at 37%, Requião Filho at 21% and Sandro Alex at 15%, with Moro also leading both runoff simulations.

Points to NO

Moro’s high rejection creates a ceiling risk and could help opponents consolidate anti-Moro voters in a runoff.
The August 24–27 Real Time Big Data survey found that 39% knew Moro and would not vote for him, while only 19% said they would definitely support him.
Sandro Alex has a credible path to close the gap by presenting himself as the successor to a highly popular state administration.
The August 20–23 Quaest survey found 79% approval for Governor Ratinho Junior and 65% support for electing his successor; Sandro Alex is his chosen candidate.
A large unsettled electorate leaves enough room for late campaign events to narrow Moro’s lead.
The August 20–23 Quaest survey found 44% could still change their choice, while 73% were undecided when asked without candidate names.

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