Will average gas prices be above $4.1400?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Kalshi70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updatedSep 2

AAA’s average jumped 2.49 cents in one day and needs less than two cents more, so a reading above $4.1400 is likely.

The latest AAA reading remains below the cutoff, and a separate holiday-weekend forecast is lower still. Even so, the one-day AAA increase nearly closed the gap while rising wholesale gasoline, tight inventories, and disrupted global oil supplies point upward. Because only a small additional retail move is needed and pump prices can lag wholesale changes, a reading above $4.1400 is likely, though a reversal or delayed pass-through remains plausible.

Points to YES

The latest daily increase was large enough that a similar move would clear the threshold.
AAA’s national average rose 2.49 cents from September 1 to $4.1203 on September 2.
Disrupted oil flows and elevated crude prices are adding upward pressure to gasoline costs.
On September 2, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut, while Brent crude settled at $95.63 per barrel.
Exceptionally low gasoline inventories leave little supply cushion against further price increases.
On August 31, domestic gasoline inventories were reported at their lowest level since August 2012 after a 2.5-million-barrel decline.

Points to NO

AAA’s latest national average remains below the strict resolution threshold with only one day left.
On September 2, AAA’s U.S. average for regular gasoline was $4.1203 per gallon, below $4.1400.
A lower holiday-weekend forecast and slowing demand point toward prices staying beneath the threshold.
On September 2, GasBuddy forecast a $4.03 average for the final summer holiday weekend and said gasoline demand was decelerating.

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