Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+41%$100 paper stake

Kalshi71¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES71¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

October WTI is trading above the threshold with little time remaining, so a September 9 settlement above $90.99 is likely.

The October contract is at $91.7529, about 0.8% above the $90.99 threshold with roughly a day remaining. Recent trading and closing levels have mostly exceeded the threshold, while attacks on Saudi energy facilities sustain supply concerns. The cushion is nevertheless narrow: WTI traded below the threshold on September 8, and progress on Hormuz shipping arrangements could ease the geopolitical premium. A settlement above $90.99 is likely, with meaningful uncertainty from the contract’s demonstrated intraday volatility.

Points to YES

October WTI traded comfortably above the resolution threshold on September 8.
On September 8, 2026, October 2026 WTI futures traded at $92.65 per barrel after breaking above $93 overnight.
Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure are supporting near-term supply-risk concerns.
On September 8, 2026, Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and set oil installations ablaze.

Points to NO

The threshold remains vulnerable to an ordinary intraday reversal.
On September 8, 2026, WTI traded as low as $90.87 before closing at $92.33 per barrel.
Diplomatic progress on Hormuz shipping could reduce the geopolitical premium in crude prices.
On September 8, 2026, Iran was reported to be nearing an agreement with Oman on shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz.

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