Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

WTI remains above the strike after two settlements above $91, so an October-contract settlement above $89.99 on September 4 is likely.

The October contract stands at $90.5049, only about $0.51 above the threshold, after WTI settled above $91 on each of the prior two days. Middle East fighting and disrupted Hormuz traffic continue to support prices, while recovering exports and bearish trading signals create substantial downside risk. A settlement above $89.99 is more likely, but the narrow cushion leaves meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

WTI enters the final day above the threshold, requiring a same-day decline for a NO resolution.
On September 4, settlement-basis WTI stood at $90.5049, about 0.57% above $89.99.
The latest settlement left WTI comfortably above the required level.
WTI futures settled at $91.30 per barrel on September 3, up $0.29 for the day.
Severe Hormuz risks continue to support a conflict premium in crude prices.
On September 1, the Joint Maritime Information Center rated Hormuz risk severe because of continued drifting or uncharted mine risk.

Points to NO

Protected shipping and recovering regional exports reduce the threat of an immediate supply shortage.
U.S. officials said up to 40 commercial vessels carrying about 18 million barrels of oil were escorted through Hormuz on September 1.
Recent technical analysis favored sellers near $90 and identified further downside below $89.93.
On September 3, Itai Levitan favored WTI sellers below $90.00, with stronger bearish confirmation if prices remained below $89.93.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.