Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 31

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Yashar leads several recent polls despite stark pollster differences, so a Yashar plurality of Knesset seats is favored.

Several late-September surveys place Yashar first, but the newest i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey and repeated Channel 14 polling give Likud substantial leads. Yashar’s support is comparatively stable while Likud’s projections vary widely, making pollster differences the central uncertainty. Yashar is favored to win the most seats, with pending court decisions on Arab-party eligibility adding further volatility.

Points to YES

Yashar leads across several major survey series, giving it multiple independent routes to finish first.
On September 17, four reported polls placed Yashar between 21 and 24 seats and Likud between 18 and 20.
Recent Channel 12 polling continues to put Yashar ahead of Likud.
A Channel 12 poll published September 30 projected Yashar at 23 seats and Likud at 20.

Points to NO

The newest supplied poll gives Likud a clear lead and shows it gaining while Yashar remains flat.
On October 1, an i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey projected Likud at 28 seats and Yashar at 22.
Channel 14 repeatedly projects a much larger Likud advantage than other pollsters.
A Channel 14 survey conducted September 28 projected Likud at 31 seats and Yashar at 21.

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