Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,250 on Sep 7?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi48¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES48¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin is fractionally above $80,250 with less than a day remaining, so a September 7 price at or above the threshold is narrowly favored.

The settlement-basis price is barely above $80,250, leaving almost no buffer against ordinary Bitcoin volatility. Recent ETF inflows and trade above short-term moving averages support the upside, but bearish short-term commentary, geopolitical stress, and a recent rapid selloff make a reversal entirely plausible. With limited time remaining and Bitcoin already on the qualifying side, a price at or above $80,250 is narrowly favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently just above the required $80,250 level, putting YES marginally ahead before the remaining trading window.
On September 7, the settlement-basis Bitcoin price was $80,252.8281 with less than a day until settlement.
Strong recent spot-Bitcoin-ETF demand provides near-term buying support.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.8 million in net inflows on September 3 and another $174.6 million on September 4.
Bitcoin entered the settlement window above its short-term trend levels.
On September 6, Bitcoin remained above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages of $78,771 and $77,231.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has recently shown enough intraday volatility to erase its current cushion quickly.
On September 4, Bitcoin fell from $81,300 to $78,600 within minutes after the U.S. employment report.
Short-term technical commentary points to downside risk below the threshold.
At 00:08 in the Eastern Eight Zone on September 7, Zhang Lihui said Bitcoin had room to fall and suggested shorting above $80,000 toward $79,300–$78,800.
Geopolitical stress and elevated oil prices remain potential pressure points for risk assets.
Bitcoin traded around $79,900 on September 6 while oil remained above $96 following renewed U.S.-Iran escalation.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.